RR Phantom
Location : Wasted Space Job/hobbies : Cayman Islands Actuary
| Subject: Ten Economic Questions for 2021 Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:45 pm | |
| Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2020
Below are my ten questions for 2021. These are just questions, I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions.
The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework to think about how the U.S. economy will perform in 2021, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 - to adjust my thinking.
A key question is when will the pandemic subside? This will have a huge economic impact, but is a question for infectious disease experts. I'm assuming that by mid-year people will engage in normal economic activity.
1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably around negative 3% in 2020 due to the pandemic (maybe 2.5% Q4 over Q4). The FOMC is expecting growth of 3.7% to 5.0% Q4-over-Q4 in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2021?
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