Trump’s Pennsylvania Longshot: The Supreme Court will not decide this election.

Twenty years ago next month, the Supreme Court handed down its decision in Bush v. Gore, effectively ensuring that George W. Bush would win Florida’s electoral votes and thus the presidency. President Donald Trump is hoping for a similar High Court intervention in 2020—this time in Pennsylvania rather than Florida.

The president has filed a federal lawsuit (Trump v. Boockvar) citing Bush v. Gore to block Pennsylvania from certifying its election results. The outcome of this litigation is critical to Trump’s strategy because without Pennsylvania’s electoral votes Trump has no viable path to reelection. Though Boockvar bears superficial similarities to Bush v. Gore, key differences make a Trump win unlikely.

Like Bush v. Gore, Trump’s Pennsylvania suit is grounded on the theory that disparate procedures for counting votes violate the Fourteenth Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection under the law. The complaint accuses Pennsylvania officials of creating “an illegal two-tiered voting system, in which those voting in person were subject to different procedures than those casting absentee or mail-in ballots.

But disparate treatment offends the Equal Protection Clause only when those being treated differently are “similarly situated.” Bush v. Gore involved a statewide recount in which all voters were similarly situated: they had all cast (or attempted to cast) a ballot, and the case turned on the criteria used to count their votes. In the now-infamous Florida recount, some counties reviewed only “undervotes” (in which the counting machines recorded no vote) while others reviewed all ballots. And counties applied inconsistent tests to infer voter intent from the imperfectly punched ballot-punch cards. There was evidence that voters in Palm Beach County, for example, were less likely to have their votes counted than voters in Broward County.

https://www.city-journal.org/trumps-pennsylvania-longshot

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Trump’s Pennsylvania Longshot: The Supreme Court will not decide this election. PgkowJT

Trump’s Pennsylvania Longshot: The Supreme Court will not decide this election. PgkowJT

Trump’s Pennsylvania Longshot: The Supreme Court will not decide this election.

Trump’s Pennsylvania Longshot: The Supreme Court will not decide this election.

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