RR Phantom
Location : Wasted Space Job/hobbies : Cayman Islands Actuary
| Subject: Morgan Stanley Can't Believe What's Going On: "All Aboard The Crazy Train" Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:02 pm | |
| All Aboard!
Fed ‘liquidity’ has powered the S&P 500 to a 16% gain since they announced Permanent Open Market Operations in October 2019, while the NDX is up a cool 26% (total returns). The rally makes sense in the context of a Fed that is continuing to print money until at least April, and beyond that likely continues to try to fight the structural forces of deflation with the only tool they have. But at the same time consensus is that the rally in Tech/Growth continues, and investors should be increasingly concerned with some of extremes being priced into markets.
The below is a non-exhaustive list of data points that highlight just how crazy some things have become. In this environment adding beta or Growth/Tech exposure carries too much risk in QDS’s view. Instead investors should consider rotating out of their most stretched single-stock positions and into call options (i.e. stock replace, keeping upside but limiting downside), or hedging the most vulnerable areas of the market – Crowded stocks (MSXXCRWD) or Growth vs Value (MSZZGRVL). See last week’s Factor Volatility is Here to Stay for details.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/even-morgan-stanley-cant-believe-whats-going-all-aboard-crazy-train?fbclid=IwAR00VzIC2D8VlbjngI06wprTmsfoQtLZTk_-mzFEaimyZT6vDwPDyj4Fy8w |
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