Taleb says Musk’s comment on coronavirus panic being ‘dumb’ is what’s dumb

Mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb suggests Elon Musk doesn’t understand the spread of risk in complex systems

Taleb says Musk’s comment on coronavirus panic being ‘dumb’ is what’s dumb MW-IB745_taleb_20200307151021_ZQ

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose book “The Black Swan” foreshadowed the 2008 global financial crisis, responded to Elon Musk’s tweet about what he called a panic over the coronavirus with a brief lesson on probability and human endurance over the millennia.
“[T]he coronavirus panic is dumb,” Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla TSLA, -2.90%, had said Friday on Twitter.
The noted mathematician’s equally terse reply:
‘Saying the coronavirus panic is dumb is dumb.’
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

...
Shoppers in the U.S. cleared store shelves of food, disinfectants and toilet paper amid concern that supply chains will be disrupted. Meanwhile, President Trump signed an $8 billion–plus emergency package to combat the coronavirus outbreak.

Taleb, a professor, mathematician and investor whose work has focused on the risks of unexpected events, followed up in a Saturday tweet: “If the word ‘panic’ means ‘exaggerated’ reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one. ... We have survived for zillion years thanks to ‘irrational’ ‘panics.’ ”
To act “rational” during a viral outbreak that has few consequences for the individual could lead to greater overall death, Taleb explained.
That’s because if one fails to panic and act in an “ultraconservative” manner, he said in a Twitter thread that links to a March 5 tweet, a virus can spread more easily and become a “severe” source of risk for the entire system — or, in this case, society.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/taleb-says-musks-comment-on-coronavirus-panic-being-dumb-is-whats-dumb-2020-03-07

Black-Swan-Daffy

Taleb says Musk’s comment on coronavirus panic being ‘dumb’ is what’s dumb

Mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb suggests Elon Musk doesn’t understand the spread of risk in complex systems

Taleb says Musk’s comment on coronavirus panic being ‘dumb’ is what’s dumb

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