How to Lie With Statistics Updated -- David Friedman

How to Lie With Statistics is an old and good book on how not to be fooled by statistical tricks. I just came across one that, so far as I can remember (I read the book a long time ago) was not not included.

How to Lie With Statistics Updated -- David Friedman How%2Bto%2BLie

How to Lie With Statistics Updated -- David Friedman How%2Bto%2BLie

Someone commenting on a Facebook global warming post put up this graph. Two comments later he wrote "Notice a trend?"

The trick, of course, is that the years are arranged in order of how hot they were. 2014 is at the right end not because it is the most recent year but because it was the hottest. 2012 is at the left end because it was the coolest of the years shown. Arranging them that way guarantees the appearance of a rising trend, whether temperatures are actually going up or down.

I am not certain that the person who put it up intended to imply that it showed a trend. He may have only meant that 2014 was hot and 2015 expected to be hot, as mentioned in his comment immediately after he put up the graph. But my guess is that either he had been fooled by the trick of drawing the graph that way or else he was deliberately trying to fool others.

I commented on it in the thread and will be interested to see his response.

http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.co.nz/2015/09/how-to-lie-with-statistics-updated.html

How to Lie With Statistics Updated -- David Friedman

How to Lie With Statistics Updated -- David Friedman

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