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 |  Subject: Ancaps delighted! Ron Paul: Now or Never  Fri Jul 15, 2011 5:35 am | |
| Is Monetary Policy Enough to Win the White House From Obama?
Fed-basher Ron Paul is making an all-in bid in probably his last run for the presidency, and public frustration over monetary policy has rarely been higher. But is Mr. Paul's radical vision of smaller government and free markets attractive enough to win the mainstream?
On Tuesday, Mr. Paul, 74 years old, said he wouldn't seek re-election to Congress in 2012. The Texas Republican said he wants to focus on his presidential run, but also conceded that it is time to turn over representation of his Gulf Coast district to new blood.
Mr. Paul's campaign will be interesting to watch. No other candidate brings such a steadfast view that government is woefully ineffective. No declared candidate has Mr. Paul's track record of supporting radical economic policy.
"I don't see any answers here in D.C.," Mr. Paul said in an interview Tuesday. "There's a lot of talk, but not solutions because they don't want to change the function of government."
As a libertarian, he has spent years on the edge of Beltway and Main Street politics, never capturing more than antiestablishment support and a hardcore antigovernment following. His backers have been fervent, but until now ineffective when it comes to electing their champion to higher office.
Mr. Paul believes this time is different. He believes that the stumbling economy and budget issues have awakened a new audience. Consider that the last time he ran in 2008, there wasn't a Tea Party. Now as many as 20% of voters consider themselves part of the movement.
Last month Mr. Paul won a straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans—grabbing nearly twice the support of the runner-up, businessman and former U.S. ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and eliciting more than three times the support of Rep. Michelle Bachmann, (R.-Minn.).
The results were in stark contrast to his 2008 presidential bid in which he was excluded from some debates and finished in the middle of the pack in the Iowa Caucus.
"Every so often, monetary policy becomes the key element in the political process," Mr. Paul said in an interview. He says that the role of a central bank has been debated since the country was founded. His views, he said, are aligned with those founding fathers who initially defeated a proposed central bank (the Fed was founded in 1913, the third central bank in U.S. history).
Voters are "more passionate now than they have been in 100 years," Mr. Paul said. "They're much more passionate about it than they were four years ago. And they ought to be passionate about it because it's so important."
But as much as the role of the Federal Reserve has been debated during the last four years, there doesn't seem to be a clear groundswell of support to eliminate the institution.
A Bloomberg poll conducted in December found that most Americans are dissatisfied with the Fed, but there was hardly a consensus about a solution. Less than half of respondents, 39%, said it should be held more accountable; 37% favored the status quo; only 16% said it should be abolished.
Mixed results at best. Perhaps Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's statement Wednesday that the Fed was considering some creative ways to goose the economy will turn more people against the Fed.
On the other hand, the market rallied on the news. So, if anything, Mr. Paul shouldn't count on zealous Wall Street support. For as much as it may abhor government intrusion, it sees the benefits of it as well.
More troubling for Paulistas are Mr. Paul's views on other issues.
Mr. Paul is against Social Security and Medicare. He wants to shrink the military. He's not entirely against public schools, but hasn't supported much spending. He's called the Department of Education unconstitutional.
That's why even if Mr. Paul is right about a new passion among Americans to rein in the Federal Reserve, his agenda to shrink government is going to doom his candidacy.
Republicans are already licking their wounds from the public backlash over House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's, (R., Wis.), plan to cut Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Ryan now ranks as the third-least popular Republican behind Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin.
Moreover, Mr. Paul faces an electorate that, like it or not, is dependent on Washington. Nearly $2 of every $10 in personal income, about $2.3 trillion, last year was the result of government spending, according to a report Monday issued by Moody's Investors Service.
It's hard for most of us to vote against programs so obviously boosting our bottom lines.
That's why as much as Mr. Paul's views on monetary policy may be capturing a bigger following than he's ever enjoyed in his two-and-a-half decades in Congress, as his strong early showing suggests, his radical views about the size of government probably doom him to defeat in the Republican primaries.
Still, Mr. Paul's candidacy bears watching. He will challenge more mainstream candidates including Mitt Romney, Tim Palwenty and perhaps Texas Gov. Rick Perry on the Fed's role in the economy.
As a candidate, Mr. Paul is most likely finished, but as a discussion starter, he's going to play a big role. Mr. Romney, for instance, was asked whether the Fed "would be here forever" on the campaign trail this year. He said "yes." The video has become popular among Mr. Paul's followers.
That may be enough for Mr. Paul, who believes his candidacy will bring awareness to his point of view.
"When people understand how the deficits would have prevented with a sound currency—you can't print gold—you can't go into deficit. But this way of borrowing money is so devastating, and people are waking up because of the financial crisis," he said.
And if they reject his solutions—eliminating the Fed, public schools, a strong military and entitlements—will Mr. Paul's brand of libertarianism survive without its modern-day crusader?
Given the nation's economic upheaval, if America isn't ready for Mr. Paul's brand of politics now, it may be never be.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303406104576444132029607012.html?mod=WSJ_Election_RightTopCarousel_1 |
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